ASK AHAB

NOVEMBER 16, 2026

Dear Ahab:

I keep reading that this year’s super El Niño will make the U.S. warmer than normal this winter. Does that mean diesel fuel will be cheaper? If so, should we be thanking Mother Nature?

– Penny Pincher

Dear Penny Pincher:

Let’s not send Mother Nature a thank-you card just yet. While a warmer winter could provide shippers with some relief, warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the northern United States, including the Midwest and much of the East, could reduce seasonal heating demand and ease some pressure on energy markets. However, that does not necessarily mean diesel prices will go down.

Diesel prices are influenced by crude oil prices, refinery capacity, inventories, distillate supplies, and geopolitical events. Any of these factors could outweigh the benefits of a warmer winter. Milder weather could also mean fewer cold-weather transportation disruptions, although El Niño could bring wetter conditions to the South and East, creating an entirely different set of supply chain challenges.

So, there’s no need to thank Mother Nature just yet. But shippers should gladly take any help she sends their way.

Dear Ahab:

I keep hearing that cargo theft along rail routes in the Southwest is becoming a serious problem. What can shippers do to protect their freight from the growing threat of cargo theft throughout the supply chain?

– Jesse James

Dear Jesse James:

Unfortunately, cargo theft is becoming another risk shippers need to factor into their supply chain strategies. Organized thieves are increasingly targeting freight, particularly along vulnerable rail corridors in the Southwest.

One potential contributing factor worth examining is the amount of cargo information now required on shipping manifests. U.S. Customs and Border Protection requires rail carriers to provide cargo information, and federal manifest requirements can include a specific description of merchandise, quantity, weight and value. While these requirements are designed for customs and enforcement purposes, the industry should consider whether increasingly detailed cargo information could create additional security vulnerabilities if it falls into the wrong hands.

One thing shippers can do beyond purchasing adequate cargo insurance and considering alternative ports and gateways, is to work with an experienced logistics consultant who can evaluate cargo theft “hot spots” and identify alternative routes, rail ramps and transfer points that minimize exposure to known theft hot areas.