Bigger Tax Refunds from the Big Beautiful Bill Could Boost Spending, Increase Imports, and Tighten Peak Season Shipping Space

One thing shippers need to prepare for is that the logistics industry could have a bigger than expected peak season. The main reason for this is that millions of Americans are slated to get bigger tax refunds from the “Big Beautiful Bill.”

According to a recent article from CNBC, the average tax refund could be $1,000 or more this year, with some taxpayers receiving even larger payouts. Historically, when Americans receive bigger refunds, consumer spending increases, especially in discretionary categories such as electronics, apparel, home goods, and everyday essentials.

Because many of these products are sourced overseas, increased spending often translates directly into higher U.S. import volumes. While this is positive for retailers, it can also create challenges across the logistics sector. A sudden surge in cargo demand can rapidly absorb vessel space, contribute to port congestion, and lead to greater volatility in freight rates.

“Bigger tax refunds will not only give consumers a boost, they can also create a perfect storm for supply chains, leading to a more competitive peak season,” said Anthony Fullbrook, president of OEC Group’s North American Region.  “Shippers who prepare now will have an easier time navigating what could be a very tight market. Those who don’t may find themselves paying more and waiting longer for space, right when they need it the most.”

To stay ahead, shippers should adopt a proactive, structured planning strategy. This includes booking space early to secure capacity before demand spikes and diversifying routings across multiple ports to maintain flexibility in the event of congestion. Staying closely attuned to market data and trends will help shippers react quickly to any unexpected shifts. Additionally, maintaining a balanced mix of contract and spot rates can provide both cost stability and the agility needed to adjust as conditions evolve.

“Historically, larger than normal tax refunds act like a stimulus. While they may not change the whole year, they can tip a quarter into seeing higher imports,” said Kaleb Shaw, Branch Manager for OEC Group’s Kansas City branch. “While they may not change the entire year, they can tip a quarter into seeing higher imports. If the Big Beautiful Bill delivers the big refunds many analysts expect, then the U.S. is likely headed for a spending season that could quickly lift imports and tighten ocean capacity.”