Don’t Put All Your Cargo in a Single Transportation Mode

Traditionally, many shippers have viewed air freight as either an emergency solution or a service reserved for high-value cargo. However, that approach no longer aligns with today's volatile logistics environment. With ocean congestion, blank sailings, tariff uncertainty, and rising transportation costs disrupting traditional shipping plans, air freight should be considered an intentional component of both current and future supply chain strategies.

This does not mean shifting every shipment from ocean to air. Rather, it means dedicating, or at least planning for, a portion of cargo to move by air so your supply chain can respond quickly when ocean service becomes too slow or unreliable. In today's unpredictable market, having multiple transportation options is not simply advantageous, it is essential.

The reason is straightforward. Ocean shipping has become increasingly vulnerable to congestion, schedule disruptions, port delays, and blank sailings. At the same time, the widespread front-loading of cargo ahead of potential tariff changes has made securing ocean capacity more difficult. As importers move freight earlier than planned, traditional shipping seasons are being extended, reducing available space and creating new challenges for shippers trying to maintain inventory levels. In some cases, those delays are pushing additional cargo into the air market, placing even greater pressure on available capacity.

That pressure could intensify in the months ahead. An October market report warned that persistent ocean congestion and the release of China-U.S. cargo previously delayed by tariff uncertainty could inject additional volume into the air freight market. Demand tied to artificial intelligence infrastructure, semiconductors, electronics, and year-end retail inventory is also helping keep capacity tight across several trade lanes.

For shippers without an established air freight strategy, the risk is clear, you can no longer assume air capacity will be available whenever you need it. In July, global air cargo demand increased 3.9 percent year over year, while capacity grew only 1.7 percent. That 2.2 percentage-point gap highlights a market where demand is expanding more than twice as fast as available capacity, creating the potential for tighter space and higher rates.

Capacity constraints are only part of the equation. As available space tightens, rising fuel costs have the potential to add even more upward pressure on rates. The International Air Transport Association's global jet-fuel benchmark reached $194.90 per barrel during the week ending September 18, an increase of 7.4 percent in a single week and 116.5 percent from a year earlier. While fuel costs are climbing across ocean, air, rail, and trucking markets, shippers that delay transportation decisions or fail to establish contingency plans may find themselves facing significantly higher costs when disruptions occur.

Trade policy uncertainty has added another layer of complexity, particularly following the elimination of the de minimis exemption. At the same time, AI-related equipment, technology products, retail merchandise, and other time-sensitive cargo continue to compete for limited air capacity. The result is an air freight market that is becoming increasingly important to a growing number of shippers.

This growing demand reinforces why air freight should be part of a broader supply chain strategy. That means working with a trusted logistics partner to determine which products can remain on the water, which shipments may require expedited air service, and which inventory is best moved through a planned combination of both.

A balanced ocean-and-air strategy is not a cure-all for today's supply chain challenges. However, it does provide something every shipper needs – options. In an era defined by uncertainty, built-in flexibility is far safer than betting your entire supply chain strategy on a single transportation mode.